Week 4 Final Picks

A little late coming but here they are:
NFL Week 4 Picks

I used the magic 80% historically correct stat to help me choose against against-the-spread. The upset picks I'm making are OAK over MIA, CLE over BAL, and even DET over CHI, and TAM over CAR. Each of these picks has the winner with the higher yards per throw/attempt average.

Click the pic below to see an explanation:

Week 4 Early Line

So here's my Week 4 early line. It's just a ballpark spread that I expect this coming weekend in the week 4 games. I also updated the Week 3 spreadsheet here.

OAK
MIA -3

HOU -5
ATL

BAL -4
CLE

CHI -4
DET

GNB -6
MIN

STL
DAL -8

NYJ -4
BUF

TAM
CAR -1

SEA -5/-6
SFO

PIT -10
ARI

KAN
SDG -7

DEN
IND -6

PHI -6
NYG

NWE -8
CIN


I have yet to look at the official spreads but I'll be making my final picks and will post them tomorrow in a spreadsheet as always.

Also, I'm beginning to use this idea I found in a noted men's magazine. It made reference to a particular stat that they called the most important stat in football. That stat is yards per throw, or in other words, yards per pass attempt. I used nfl.com's stat sorting to list the teams in descending order according to this stat. Guess who's at the top of the list? New England. Guess who's right below them in spot number 2? Dallas. Guess who I think will be in the Super Bowl this year? Yes, those two teams. Nonetheless the season is still early. Well as for this stat, the claim is that over the last 50 years in pro football this stat predicts the winner 80% of the time. For instance, TAM ranks higher with regard to this stat than does CAR, thus this stat says TAM wins. Who do you think? (TAM is ranked 3rd)

Week 3 RECAP

It was quite an average week for my picks this week. Thus far I'm 7-6-2 ATS and 7-8 SU. A lower SU record for the week makes for some interesting and surprising games though. Green Bay over San Diego and Tampa Bay over St. Louis being great examples of this.

You can find the picks and record here:
NFL Week 3 Picks and Record

Speaking of Green Bay... WOW! They beat San Diego.


Well SD has their own issues right now and you have to feel bad for LT since he's in his prime and the franchise is letting him down. He should just sell out and demand a trade to the Patriots. Then the Pats can win the next four Super Bowls and Tom Brady can be inducted to the Hall of Fame while still playing in the NFL. Ummm, YEAH RIGHT!! I hope the Cowboys crush the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I also hope Belichick gets fired and banned from the league. I never hated him at all. I thought he was a good coach and that's all, that's all the media said about him. But now he's like a little creepy, soft-spoken cheater. He's like a classmate who gets all the attention because he does so well but then everyone discovers that he was just cheating and then hates him and feels sorry for him. The main reason this infuriates me is because I have to second-guess games now. If the Pats are running over opponents, seemingly knowing their plays, what kind of game is that? It's like a false game, like a play being acted out, it strips the spontaneity from the competition. I now sometimes second-guess the legitimacy of the competition because of this scandal. This in turn has lowered my interest level a bit. Nonetheless, I will block this out of my mind as much as possible and carry on as an NFL fan.

The Cowboys, yes, made a statement game.



It's gonna take a lot of injuries to hold them back from a Super Bowl berth. Romo and T.O. have to be healthy (injury-free). I would be absolutely elated to see the 'Boys knock around Tom Brady and make him play bad in a Super Bowl. It would make my year. No, it would make my decade (2000-2010).

Week 3 Picks and Crowdpicks.com

My spreadsheet with all my Week 3 picks is now done.
You can see it here:
NFL Week 3 Picks

I also wanted to let everyone know about this cool site I found through one of the google ads on this page. It's called crowdpicks.com and you can make your own picks against-the-spread there, create a profile and friends like myspace, and the site will keep track of your stats. It supports many sports other than the NFL too. You can add friends and have people look at your "trophy room" where you will be awarded trophies for your picks' performance. I signed up already and I'll be making my picks right now. To top it off you can earn money if many people view your trophy room since the site will share ad revenue.

[UPDATE]: The Crowdpicks site is offline for some maintenance right now. I'll make my picks there asap. My username there is "johnart".

Week 3 Early Line

So here's my Week 3 Early Line. I'm mostly relying on my impressions from the first two games and I'm starting to let go of those vague ideas from last season. One quick example of this at work is the strength of NOR. They haven't been impressive at all while TEN has. I think TEN wins this week at NOR. It'll be a good game to watch as we'll find out how good TEN really is and how bad (or even good) NOR can be.

Quick explanation:
The minus sign indicates that I expect that team to win by those many points. IND -4 means I think Indy beats HOU by about 4 points.

IND -4
HOU

SDG -5
GNB

MIN -3
KAN

DET
PHI -1

BUF
NWE -10

MIA
NYJ -6

SFO
PIT -7

ARI
BAL -3

STL -1
TAM

JAC
DEN -1

CIN -3
SEA

CLE -2
OAK

CAR -7
ATL

NYG
WAS -4

DAL -1
CHI

TEN -2
NOR

These are just my first impressions for this weeks games and the official spread can be seen if you scroll down below. I'll make my picks against the spread tomorrow and post them here on a spreadsheet by mid-afternoon.

Eagles need to shape up quickly

Hey everyone, I caught most of the second half and the Eagles were disappointing. Granted, I expected them to win a close game and lose ATS but not lose outright. They had dropped passes and errant throws and got beat deep quite a few times (Campbell even overthrew Santana Moss which would have been a TD by far). Their secondary is full of injuries so it's somewhat excusable but the errors in the passing game are a whole other matter. McNabb needs to shape up. Well this game helped my ATS record for the week but hurt my SU record.

For the season my records are:
ATS: 16-14-2
SU: 19-13

Click here for the picks and records spreadsheet: NFL Week 2 Picks.

Week 2 Halftime Report

So most of the games are wrapped up and WOW there's been some surprises. I've updated my spreadsheet to show the to-date records: NFL Week 2 Records. The records are to the right.

How did the Bengals lose to the Browns? My best guess is that they weren't ready for an aggressive passing attack and couldn't make the adjustments to slow them down as the game was an all-out shootout. In fact it was the first since the 70's that each quarterback threw for 5 or more touchdowns in a game. I didn't see the game but I wonder how Leon Hall, the Bengals' most recent first round draft pick (CB out of Michigan), did. Did anyone see this game? Final score: Bengals 45, Browns 51

I had a feeling that the Bucs would come out and win a game to surprise everyone. Too bad they did it when I picked the lagging Saints to not only beat them but cover them a 4 points. Final score: Saints 14, Bucs 31

How about those Texans? Texans 34, Panthers 21
I thought they would win ATS, getting 7 points, but I didn't expect them to win by two touchdowns. I actually feel good about them winning now, they needed their moment for a while now.

I'm watching the Pats-Bolts Sunday night game on ABC. Guess what?? The Chargers just scored their first TD. It's halfway through the 3rd and the score is now 24-7. The Patriots look like they will knock out the Colts in the playoffs.

Week 2 Final Picks

First and foremost are my 5 ★, 4 ★, and 3 ★ picks of the week:

5 ★: CIN -7 over CLE
4 ★: NOR -4 over TAM
3 ★: DAL -4 over MIA

The common theme for these picks is high powered offenses going up against struggling teams with weak quarterbacks and average defenses.

One way I would play these picks out is bet some comfortable (meaning you can stand to lose this amount) amount on CIN -7 AND bet that same amount on a 2-team parlay on NOR and DAL. A parlay bet is when you wager on two or more events and you must win each event to win that bet. It's tougher to win but with two teams it's doable and the payment is of course higher.

Say you bet $50 on each of those bets at Bodog. If CIN covers the 7 points, you profit $45.45 and are returned your $50 and the profit for a net of $95.45. Now if the parlay loses you lose the $50 you bet on it but in reality you only lost $4.55 since you won the CIN bet ($45.45 - $50 = -$4.55) . The best case scenario is of course if you win both bets. In that case your $50 wagered on the parlay gives you a profit of $140.59 for a net of $190.59. Combine that with the $95.45 from the CIN bet and you have a total of $286.04 for risking $100. But the very worst case is that you miss both bets and lose $100. Thus you should be comfortable with the possibility of losing some set amount of money.

Check out my spreadsheet for all my picks:

NFL Week 2 Picks

Next week I'll try and get these final picks out by Thursday afternoon.

Week 1 RECAP

MNF is all done with now and it's time to recap the week's games and my record ATS (against-the-spread) and SU (straight-up).

ATS: 7-9
SU: 8-8

EDIT: Looking over the lines I decided I would include ties in the ATS record.

So here's the corrected record for the first week:
ATS: 7-7-2
SU: 10-6

And the break down of each game in a spreadsheet can be seen here:

NFL Week 1 Spreadsheet


The first week records leave something to be desired but in the next few days I'll revise my week 2 lines and grade three picks as a 5 star, 4 star and 3 star pick.

I only caught the first game last night and it was close throughout. To say the least, the Bengals got away with one this time. The Ravens were just off cue. They had a whopping 6 turnovers to the Bengals' 2. McGahee was not impressive whatsoever and I'll even go so far as to say that the backup back, Morris I think, ran better against Cincy. Morris would squeeze into tight spots and zoom by before the D reacted while McGahee seemed to be waiting for blocks that never came. Morris' successful run style was best exemplified in his touchdown run near the goal line as he slipped through the trenches and was in the end zone in the blink of an eye. Overall both teams were far from the polished play they're capable of. Palmer wasn't in synch with his receivers nor was as accurate as he usually is. On the same note the Ravens failed to get any offensive attack going and had serious ball security issues.

Early in the week I chose BAL by 3 and the line was giving 3 to BAL so going with BAL ATS and SU was my pick.

I didn't catch the 49ers and Cardinals game but it was a close one. I had the 9ers winning by more than 5 but not 6 (5.5) so I won that game ATS and SU.

My Week 2 Early Line

I'm not sure if I'll change this line much during the week. It depends on whether or not I do some research. With the week 1 games fresh in my mind here's my week 2 lines:

HOU
CAR -7

BUF
PIT -4

IND -6
TEN

GB
NYG -3

NO -8
TB

ATL
JAC -8

SF
STL -6

CIN -8
CLE

SEA -6
ARI

MIN -4
DET

DAL -8
MIA

NYJ
BAL -4

OAK
DEN -3

KC
CHI -8

SD
NE -6

WAS
PHI -3

The season opens with a bang

Well the 2007 NFL season has finally kicked off and I'm excited about what the season will bring.

Today's games showed us that the 2007 playoffs will be as interesting as ever as the New England - Indianapolis AFC rivalry was rejuvenated with extremely strong showings from both teams. Both of these teams looked polished and executed like champs and I expect them to square off again in the AFC title game. That leaves the talented Chargers out as I expect that either Indy or NE will eliminate them in the playoffs. My reasoning being the slight weakness in the passing attack of the Chargers compared to these two. These three teams will contend for the top two AFC seeds and most likely depend on strength of schedule among them, as well as key injuries and random errant play (INTs, fumbles).

Well around Wednesday Sept 5, 2007 I created my own lines for the first week's games so I'll list that here. With the majority of the games over I'll post my thoughts on each game completed.

Projected Line:
NOR
IND IND by 8

Official Score:
NOR 10, IND41

Opinion:
I think I caught a glimpse of some of Manning's preseason play and you'd be a fool to not be impressed. They really only got better from last year's Colts postseason team (they stop the run now, receiving corps is healthy and revamped). I like Anthony Gonzalez and how IND is now using Clark over the middle. This was a trouncing and if this game is played ten times, IND wins 8-9 of those games.

KAN
HOU KAN by 7.5

KAN 3, HOU 20

Houston is on the upturn but hasn't this been brewing for a few years now? Obviously I need to research these two teams a bit more but Kansas City might be a lot worse than I expected.

DEN
BUF Den by 6

DEN 15, BUF 14

Buffalo might be strongly contending for a wild card spot this season. They were leading in the game the whole way. I think Posluszny, LB rookie out of Penn State, can be dominant and have that Urlacher presence for their D. Marshawn Lynch is also a notable addition. Impressing showing for Buffalo.

PIT
CLE PIT by 6.5

PIT 34, CLE 7

This was my strong pick for the week. I used this pick to hedge a 3-team parlay (which lost). This wasn't a very informed pick, I only ran with the idea that the Steelers are a top 10-15 team and the Browns are a lower tier team. The Browns have a ways to go for a .500 season and the Steelers are more or less the same team they were in 2005.

TEN
JAC JAC by 5

TEN 13, JAC 10

I had a feeling about this pick with Vince Young being that X factor that turns games around. I didn't see this game or haven't looked into the details but I'm guessing Tennessee's D held up pretty well and Young scrambled for first downs quite often. Merrill Hoge of ESPN pointed out how quickly Young decides to scramble out of the pocket and it was quite funny seeing it on tape. Vince just deserted the pocket while his receivers were like five steps into their route and before any breaks in the play I saw. But to his credit the middle field was wide open and he gained like 8 yards. Hoge thinks it's a mistake but who knows what the TEN coaches are telling Vince. Those for sure 8 yards for a first down are a lot more beneficial to a team in the long run than a unsure 30 yard pass that can easily go for an incomplete or INT.

CAR
STL CAR by 4 or less

CAR 27, STL 13

It came to down to explosiveness in the offense for me here. Steve Smith is healthy and just one mistake on D for the Rams and it's a score for this elite athlete.


PHI
GNB PHI by 7

PHI 13, GNB 16

What a disappointment here for the Eagles. Thinking up this line I had envisioned the McNabb of every last year being the passing leader almost every week. But he didn't look so well and there was little chemistry between him and his receivers. On the other hand Favre was hustling and getting off passes while getting knocked around. But that sort of play can really catch up to Green Bay with some terrible turnovers. Essentially this game should have gone into overtime with the Eagles inching by, but a muffed punt by an Eagle for a turnover sealed the deal. A very bad day for the Eagles special teams, as that happened twice in the game. The way the Eagles looked I think they'll be in contention for a wild card spot in the playoffs. The Packers might win 9 games, but no more than that.

ATL
MIN ATL by 3

ATL 3, MIN 24

Wow, I picked ATL here. Somehow I had the idea that ATL could get turnovers on D and maybe even stop the run. I also thought Harrington could manage the offense and Dunn could move the chains. Adrian Peterson impressed in his NFL debut, rushing for over 100 yards. Atlanta losing by this margin and not fielding a touchdown spells serious trouble for them. Meanwhile I'll have to look into how strong Minnesota can really be. Did they pummel a weak opponent or are they ready to shake up that wild card spot?


MIA
WAS WAS by 3

MIA 13, WAS 16

I was right on the button with this one and the official spread was the same. These are two lower tier teams but not basement level. I gave the slight edge to WAS because I think Trent Green is on the downturn the MIA offense hasn't produced consistently for some time.

NWE
NYJ NWE by 8

NWE 38, NYJ 14

What a game. Early on it seemed as if the Jets would hang in there but Brady was unstoppable. He has a new set of receivers and probably the best he's ever had. Moss was dominant. The New England D shut down the Jets' run game too. New England was clearly the more talented and faster team. Mangini could plan all he wants but this game was won with New England talent. This wasn't the "chess match" between Belichick and Mangini it was made to seem.


TAM
SEA SEA by 3

TAM 6, SEA 20

Here I thought Garcia would work some magic and get the Bucs' offense kicking but I'm not sure what happened and didn't see the game. Last year the Bucs surprised when they beat the Bengals late in the season. I'm not sure if the Bucs O line is weak, the receivers were covered or weren't open or if the Bucs' run game was eliminated and I'll have to look into it. Was it the Seahawks' superior D?

CHI
SDG SDG by 3

CHI 3, SDG 14

Pressure on Grossman, period. 3 measly points for the Super Bowl runner ups?? Even if they crush all their NFC opponents, if they can't even score a TD on an elite AFC team why bother showing up to the Super Bowl? LT was kept under 100 yards but that didn't deter the Bolts from rushing him.


DET
OAK OAK by 3

DET 36, OAK 21

How the heck did Oakland's supposed great D allow 36 points? And from DET?? Did the Raiders get a new D coordinator? Did John Kitna just lob it to Calvin Johnson like five times? I didn't see this one but I have to look into how DET scored 36 and how OAK allowed that.

NYG
DAL DAL by 6

It came down to Eli Manning on this one. I really took note seeing him throw some INTs in preseason games as well overthrow or just being out of sync with wideouts. The Dallas D is also overall better than the Giants'. T.O. is a lock for a TD reception or two and the Dallas run game is adequate. Romo had an impressive day and I think Wade Phillips being a laid back coach helps this team in play selection. When you give some liberty to Romo and T.O. they will make things happen and they did. Dallas should make the playoffs, possible by way of winning the division as the Eagles looked sloppy today. The Giants will be contending for a wild card spot with the middle tier NFC teams.

The next games play out later today on MNF. McGahee going to the Ravens made the difference in my choice below. The Ravens have to get to Palmer, if they do they can win this with a solid run game. It seems the CIN O-line is under construction with two new starters at C and LG and the whole unit hasn't gotten a game together under their belt. This could mean trouble. The official line is -3 CIN. At this point I'd go with CIN at -3 since the passing attack can't be ignored. They could rush Palmer and even sack him a few times but a quick audible can turn one of those would-be sacks to a quick pass to Chad Johnson for a touchdown. CIN coaches know their O-line will be weak and will call plays to compensate for that. Bottom line is that the Ravens will lose if they fall behind by more than one score, and if the game is close near the end the Bengals will find a way to get 7 and cover that spread.

The official line for SFO is -3. ARI just doesn't measure up on D.

BAL
CIN BAL by 3

ARI
SFO SFO by 5.5