The season opens with a bang

Well the 2007 NFL season has finally kicked off and I'm excited about what the season will bring.

Today's games showed us that the 2007 playoffs will be as interesting as ever as the New England - Indianapolis AFC rivalry was rejuvenated with extremely strong showings from both teams. Both of these teams looked polished and executed like champs and I expect them to square off again in the AFC title game. That leaves the talented Chargers out as I expect that either Indy or NE will eliminate them in the playoffs. My reasoning being the slight weakness in the passing attack of the Chargers compared to these two. These three teams will contend for the top two AFC seeds and most likely depend on strength of schedule among them, as well as key injuries and random errant play (INTs, fumbles).

Well around Wednesday Sept 5, 2007 I created my own lines for the first week's games so I'll list that here. With the majority of the games over I'll post my thoughts on each game completed.

Projected Line:
NOR
IND IND by 8

Official Score:
NOR 10, IND41

Opinion:
I think I caught a glimpse of some of Manning's preseason play and you'd be a fool to not be impressed. They really only got better from last year's Colts postseason team (they stop the run now, receiving corps is healthy and revamped). I like Anthony Gonzalez and how IND is now using Clark over the middle. This was a trouncing and if this game is played ten times, IND wins 8-9 of those games.

KAN
HOU KAN by 7.5

KAN 3, HOU 20

Houston is on the upturn but hasn't this been brewing for a few years now? Obviously I need to research these two teams a bit more but Kansas City might be a lot worse than I expected.

DEN
BUF Den by 6

DEN 15, BUF 14

Buffalo might be strongly contending for a wild card spot this season. They were leading in the game the whole way. I think Posluszny, LB rookie out of Penn State, can be dominant and have that Urlacher presence for their D. Marshawn Lynch is also a notable addition. Impressing showing for Buffalo.

PIT
CLE PIT by 6.5

PIT 34, CLE 7

This was my strong pick for the week. I used this pick to hedge a 3-team parlay (which lost). This wasn't a very informed pick, I only ran with the idea that the Steelers are a top 10-15 team and the Browns are a lower tier team. The Browns have a ways to go for a .500 season and the Steelers are more or less the same team they were in 2005.

TEN
JAC JAC by 5

TEN 13, JAC 10

I had a feeling about this pick with Vince Young being that X factor that turns games around. I didn't see this game or haven't looked into the details but I'm guessing Tennessee's D held up pretty well and Young scrambled for first downs quite often. Merrill Hoge of ESPN pointed out how quickly Young decides to scramble out of the pocket and it was quite funny seeing it on tape. Vince just deserted the pocket while his receivers were like five steps into their route and before any breaks in the play I saw. But to his credit the middle field was wide open and he gained like 8 yards. Hoge thinks it's a mistake but who knows what the TEN coaches are telling Vince. Those for sure 8 yards for a first down are a lot more beneficial to a team in the long run than a unsure 30 yard pass that can easily go for an incomplete or INT.

CAR
STL CAR by 4 or less

CAR 27, STL 13

It came to down to explosiveness in the offense for me here. Steve Smith is healthy and just one mistake on D for the Rams and it's a score for this elite athlete.


PHI
GNB PHI by 7

PHI 13, GNB 16

What a disappointment here for the Eagles. Thinking up this line I had envisioned the McNabb of every last year being the passing leader almost every week. But he didn't look so well and there was little chemistry between him and his receivers. On the other hand Favre was hustling and getting off passes while getting knocked around. But that sort of play can really catch up to Green Bay with some terrible turnovers. Essentially this game should have gone into overtime with the Eagles inching by, but a muffed punt by an Eagle for a turnover sealed the deal. A very bad day for the Eagles special teams, as that happened twice in the game. The way the Eagles looked I think they'll be in contention for a wild card spot in the playoffs. The Packers might win 9 games, but no more than that.

ATL
MIN ATL by 3

ATL 3, MIN 24

Wow, I picked ATL here. Somehow I had the idea that ATL could get turnovers on D and maybe even stop the run. I also thought Harrington could manage the offense and Dunn could move the chains. Adrian Peterson impressed in his NFL debut, rushing for over 100 yards. Atlanta losing by this margin and not fielding a touchdown spells serious trouble for them. Meanwhile I'll have to look into how strong Minnesota can really be. Did they pummel a weak opponent or are they ready to shake up that wild card spot?


MIA
WAS WAS by 3

MIA 13, WAS 16

I was right on the button with this one and the official spread was the same. These are two lower tier teams but not basement level. I gave the slight edge to WAS because I think Trent Green is on the downturn the MIA offense hasn't produced consistently for some time.

NWE
NYJ NWE by 8

NWE 38, NYJ 14

What a game. Early on it seemed as if the Jets would hang in there but Brady was unstoppable. He has a new set of receivers and probably the best he's ever had. Moss was dominant. The New England D shut down the Jets' run game too. New England was clearly the more talented and faster team. Mangini could plan all he wants but this game was won with New England talent. This wasn't the "chess match" between Belichick and Mangini it was made to seem.


TAM
SEA SEA by 3

TAM 6, SEA 20

Here I thought Garcia would work some magic and get the Bucs' offense kicking but I'm not sure what happened and didn't see the game. Last year the Bucs surprised when they beat the Bengals late in the season. I'm not sure if the Bucs O line is weak, the receivers were covered or weren't open or if the Bucs' run game was eliminated and I'll have to look into it. Was it the Seahawks' superior D?

CHI
SDG SDG by 3

CHI 3, SDG 14

Pressure on Grossman, period. 3 measly points for the Super Bowl runner ups?? Even if they crush all their NFC opponents, if they can't even score a TD on an elite AFC team why bother showing up to the Super Bowl? LT was kept under 100 yards but that didn't deter the Bolts from rushing him.


DET
OAK OAK by 3

DET 36, OAK 21

How the heck did Oakland's supposed great D allow 36 points? And from DET?? Did the Raiders get a new D coordinator? Did John Kitna just lob it to Calvin Johnson like five times? I didn't see this one but I have to look into how DET scored 36 and how OAK allowed that.

NYG
DAL DAL by 6

It came down to Eli Manning on this one. I really took note seeing him throw some INTs in preseason games as well overthrow or just being out of sync with wideouts. The Dallas D is also overall better than the Giants'. T.O. is a lock for a TD reception or two and the Dallas run game is adequate. Romo had an impressive day and I think Wade Phillips being a laid back coach helps this team in play selection. When you give some liberty to Romo and T.O. they will make things happen and they did. Dallas should make the playoffs, possible by way of winning the division as the Eagles looked sloppy today. The Giants will be contending for a wild card spot with the middle tier NFC teams.

The next games play out later today on MNF. McGahee going to the Ravens made the difference in my choice below. The Ravens have to get to Palmer, if they do they can win this with a solid run game. It seems the CIN O-line is under construction with two new starters at C and LG and the whole unit hasn't gotten a game together under their belt. This could mean trouble. The official line is -3 CIN. At this point I'd go with CIN at -3 since the passing attack can't be ignored. They could rush Palmer and even sack him a few times but a quick audible can turn one of those would-be sacks to a quick pass to Chad Johnson for a touchdown. CIN coaches know their O-line will be weak and will call plays to compensate for that. Bottom line is that the Ravens will lose if they fall behind by more than one score, and if the game is close near the end the Bengals will find a way to get 7 and cover that spread.

The official line for SFO is -3. ARI just doesn't measure up on D.

BAL
CIN BAL by 3

ARI
SFO SFO by 5.5