Sunday, September 21, 2008

Week 3, just spitting out the quick picks

Last week I went 8-4-2, 8 outright wins, 4 losses and 2 pushes. That sounds like a good week to me!

Well lets just get right to it then...

Atlanta -6 1/2 over Chiefs
Thigpen can't get the job done and Atlanta leads with the yppp stat.

Oakland +10 over Buffalo
I think McFadden keeps the game within 10 with the ground assault.

Tennesee -5 1/2 over Houston
Titans have the higher yppp along with the higher ranking on Sagarin's ranking, outranking Houston by 11 teams.

New York Giants -13 over Cincinnati
The yppp and ranking metrics strongly favor the Giants. New York Giants are also ranked 2 on Sagarin's rankings while Cincy is at 24. I actually bet this one in a parlay, siding with the Bengals. But after this quick look up I'll change my mind. I'm glad this was the last pick I added to a list and only on a 6 team parlay I gambled with. So I'll the Giants with a real good butt kicking on Cincy.

Arizona +3 over Washington
So Washington ranks 15th on the Sagarin ranking while Arizona stands at 17th. Arizona leads the league in yppp with 10.2 (tied with Dallas) while Washington comes in at 7.2. Dr. Bob says that the Redskins are the better team and have had two tough opponents so far. I'll side with the raw stats and take Arizona with a free field goal thrown in.

New England -13 over Miami
Top team in Sagarin's ranking up against team 31, second to last. New England of course has the highest yppp. I'll hope that NE rips apart those Dolphins and amazingly give up the 13.

Chicago -3 over Tampa Bay

Carolina +3 1/2 over Minnesota
Hey, not often that you get a team with a higher yppp and Sagarin ranking and get some points along with that. I love this pick.

St. Louis +10 over Seattle
As bad as the Rams are, those points look pretty good given that the Rams outrank the Seahawks in yppp. The Rams are the bottome of the Sagarin rankings but Seahawks are just 23rd. A close one but I can't up 10 this time.

San Francisco -5 over Detroit.
The yppp stat strongly favors the 9ers. 9ers are 29th while Lions are 30th in Sagarin's rankings so the yppp stat dictates this opinion.

Denver -6 over New Orleans
Neck and neck in yppp, Broncos outrank the Saints markedly in Sagarin's rankings.

Philadelphia 3 1/2 over Pittsburgh

Indianapolis -5 over Jacksonville

Cleveland +3 over Baltimore

Dallas -3 over Green Bay

New York Jets +8 1/2 over San Diego

Good night/good morning...

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Week 2 and the NFL season gets rolling baby!

It was a good blind Week 1, going a respectable 9 for 15. Well here are my quick picks for tomorrow's games. The stat I have a strong preference for is the average yards per pass play but in close situations I'll go with the better coach or QB, and even the better defense. Bear in mind all the spreads were taken from and so they may differ from spreads from from below.

Chiefs -3 1/2 over Raiders
The Raiders disappointed horribly last week. That offense was for the birds. Meanwhile the Chiefs kept up with the Pats, respectable even though the Pat were without Brady for the majority of the game.

Bengals over Titans (pick, no spread)
Despite a weak week 1 showing from Cincy, I feel they'll get the offense going now.

Colts -2 over Vikings
I like this spread. The Vikings are getting too much credit here. The Colts may have lost last week but Manning and Co. will get the job done.

Saints -2 over Redskins
The Saints are at the top of the heap in the NFL average yards per pass play and this may continue. Colston may be out but Shockey makes up for that deficit.

Packers -3 over Lions
Make no mistake, the Packers and Rodgers are for real. Like fo real, fo real. This is an easy pick and a nice spread. I love it.

Bears +3 over Panthers
The Bears were impressive in their week 1 win over the Colts. Meanwhile, the Panthers pulled off a sick upset against the Chargers. Those 9 points were more than enough for them last week. I'll take the Bears with a solid run game and spectacular special teams over Carolina's passing by Delhomme vs. a scary Bears D.

Giants -8 1/2 over Rams
I like the Giants here despite the large spread. Last week the Rams got killed and the Giants are looking very good.

Bills +5 over Jaguars
The Jags disappointed last week and the Bills surprised me with a nice win and an efficient offense. The Bills also have a better average yards per pass play of 7.5 vs. 6.1 of the Jags, which is worth noting.

Falcons +7 over Bucs
I initally liked the Falcons +7 but Dr. Bob the expert handicapper from makes a case for Tampa Bay. I do like Jeff Garcia at quarterback and the Bucs were a heavily underated team last year with many profitable plays/bets. But the stats speak for themselves, Falcons hit 12.4 yards per pass play last week while the Bucs did a measly 5.4. Yes it's early in the season and it's only been one game. But that stat indicates that Atlanta figures to make for an efficient offense this year. Besides, you get 7 points!!

49ers +7 over Seahawks
9.8 vs. 4.6 yppp (yards per pass play) in the 49ers favor. And you get a whole touchdown 7 points for some breathing room! I really like this one pick.

Cardinals -7 over Dolphins
A close call but I'll take the Warner-led offense and the higher yppp stat.

Patriots over Jets (pick, no spread)
The Pats offense can work without Brady. And in fact Matt Cassell looks like the Brady of this decade. A little early to say so but he was in the shadows of Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, just learning and waiting for his moment. Well his day has come and I don't see the Pats O slowing much. The Pats offense doesn't depend on a fancy, well-footed and evasive QB who can make things happen, but rather a QB who can patiently go through his reads and make good decisions. Then again they're up against the Brett-led Jets, who figure to make a good run this season. The Pats, in my opinion, are the better overall team.

Broncos -1 over Chargers
I'll go against the trend of the past few years on this pick. Cutler and the Broncos were very impressive in week 1 and they'll be at home while the Chargers D let one get away last week to the Panthers. The Broncos hit a 12.0 yppp while the Chargers hit 8.0 yppp, which is another factor in favor of the Broncos.

Eagles +7 over Cowboys
This should be a close game, I just can't give away 7 to the Eagles with a healty McNabb tossing the rock.

There it is. Have fun Sunday fellas. Fire up the grill and HD TVs.

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