Sunday, September 14, 2008

Week 2 and the NFL season gets rolling baby!

It was a good blind Week 1, going a respectable 9 for 15. Well here are my quick picks for tomorrow's games. The stat I have a strong preference for is the average yards per pass play but in close situations I'll go with the better coach or QB, and even the better defense. Bear in mind all the spreads were taken from www.bodoglife.com and so they may differ from spreads from Covers.com from below.


Chiefs -3 1/2 over Raiders
The Raiders disappointed horribly last week. That offense was for the birds. Meanwhile the Chiefs kept up with the Pats, respectable even though the Pat were without Brady for the majority of the game.

Bengals over Titans (pick, no spread)
Despite a weak week 1 showing from Cincy, I feel they'll get the offense going now.

Colts -2 over Vikings
I like this spread. The Vikings are getting too much credit here. The Colts may have lost last week but Manning and Co. will get the job done.

Saints -2 over Redskins
The Saints are at the top of the heap in the NFL average yards per pass play and this may continue. Colston may be out but Shockey makes up for that deficit.

Packers -3 over Lions
Make no mistake, the Packers and Rodgers are for real. Like fo real, fo real. This is an easy pick and a nice spread. I love it.

Bears +3 over Panthers
The Bears were impressive in their week 1 win over the Colts. Meanwhile, the Panthers pulled off a sick upset against the Chargers. Those 9 points were more than enough for them last week. I'll take the Bears with a solid run game and spectacular special teams over Carolina's passing by Delhomme vs. a scary Bears D.

Giants -8 1/2 over Rams
I like the Giants here despite the large spread. Last week the Rams got killed and the Giants are looking very good.

Bills +5 over Jaguars
The Jags disappointed last week and the Bills surprised me with a nice win and an efficient offense. The Bills also have a better average yards per pass play of 7.5 vs. 6.1 of the Jags, which is worth noting.

Falcons +7 over Bucs
I initally liked the Falcons +7 but Dr. Bob the expert handicapper from www.drbobsports.com makes a case for Tampa Bay. I do like Jeff Garcia at quarterback and the Bucs were a heavily underated team last year with many profitable plays/bets. But the stats speak for themselves, Falcons hit 12.4 yards per pass play last week while the Bucs did a measly 5.4. Yes it's early in the season and it's only been one game. But that stat indicates that Atlanta figures to make for an efficient offense this year. Besides, you get 7 points!!

49ers +7 over Seahawks
9.8 vs. 4.6 yppp (yards per pass play) in the 49ers favor. And you get a whole touchdown 7 points for some breathing room! I really like this one pick.

Cardinals -7 over Dolphins
A close call but I'll take the Warner-led offense and the higher yppp stat.

Patriots over Jets (pick, no spread)
The Pats offense can work without Brady. And in fact Matt Cassell looks like the Brady of this decade. A little early to say so but he was in the shadows of Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, just learning and waiting for his moment. Well his day has come and I don't see the Pats O slowing much. The Pats offense doesn't depend on a fancy, well-footed and evasive QB who can make things happen, but rather a QB who can patiently go through his reads and make good decisions. Then again they're up against the Brett-led Jets, who figure to make a good run this season. The Pats, in my opinion, are the better overall team.

Broncos -1 over Chargers
I'll go against the trend of the past few years on this pick. Cutler and the Broncos were very impressive in week 1 and they'll be at home while the Chargers D let one get away last week to the Panthers. The Broncos hit a 12.0 yppp while the Chargers hit 8.0 yppp, which is another factor in favor of the Broncos.

Eagles +7 over Cowboys
This should be a close game, I just can't give away 7 to the Eagles with a healty McNabb tossing the rock.

There it is. Have fun Sunday fellas. Fire up the grill and HD TVs.

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