Week 5 Final Picks

First off I'll announce my top three picks of this week.

1. Top pick: CAR +3.5 over NO

2. Runner-up pick: JAC -2 over KC

3. Third rounder pick: DET +3.5 over WAS

Another strong pick is DAL -10.5 over BUF.

And of course the Week 5 Speadsheet:

NFL Week 5 Picks

What I did this week, which wasn't too different from previous weeks, is look up key stats on nfl.com and various power ranking systems and ask myself who I thought would win and by how much. I also have a new entry in my spreadsheets called "Pick Strength." All that tells you is the difference between the official line and my line. In other words it's a measure of the difference between my opinion and the bookmaker's opinion or the public's opinion. To get this number you look at the official line and the team that is expected to cover. Take that spread and subtract the points I gave the team. For example, the official line gives 3.5 points to CAR this week but I expect them to win by 7 or i.e. give 7 points. So the math is 3.5 - (-7) = 10.5. This is a large positive number and indicates a very strong pick. Another notable feature of this pick is that I and the line do not agree on who the favorite is. This could be because the public is betting heavily on NO because the perception is that they are still a good team and bookies need to attract action on CAR.

Leave a comment if you want to know more about all this.